
While in most of the world a proliferation of firearms would be a trigger, in the US, it may act more as a stabilizing influence – it is much harder to massacre a well-armed populace. However, organized militias and lone actors radicalized online raise the risk of tit-for-tat attacks. Incidents like political assassinations or attacks on infrastructure could spiral if perceived as justified “self-defense” by factions. Surveys show a minority, but non-trivial, percentage of the Left view violence as sometimes justified for political goals. The recent spate of often successful attacks on their political opponents confirms that position.
Political violence is now a fact of life in the US. It is often noted that the Left uses it on a sliding scale, while the Right views it as an On/Off switch. I’d wager that a successful assassination of President Trump would be THE On switch for the Right to finally unleash en masse. And, once started, that would be difficult to turn off.